General (main property discussion here) - Betting on house prices: Quarter-to-quarter market forecasts

Hi- I'm doing a bit of betting on Betfair for where national and London house prices will be in the next few quarters. I'm trying to refine my model and forecasting and am looking for resources to help me. Can anyone point me to either quarterly market forecasts or sources of "live" house price data that might be able to help me? Thanks.

for a 50% fee i will tell you.

you need to do the same as all of us do . watch the market .talk to agents they know whats going on.

r a,

are you hedging your portfolio?

tom

david- tricky part is i'm trying to bet on national house prices. hard to have a national network of agents that i can talk to. i can get better info on london (where i'm based) but even then, still bit difficult b/c requires having a decent network. hence i'm looking for good web sites, reports, and/or indicators that might give some clues about where mkt is moving.

tom- no am not hedging portfolio. to be honest, i don't have one. dont want to take on risk of "big" bets on property price flucuations (especially when i consider leverage) so am trying to build up smaller bets on short and medium term markets. but in meantime, am looking for more info (websites, forums, etc) on property markets to inform my positions.

R A,

My estimates......

next quarter :- National +2.0% London +1.75% 2nd quarter :- National +2.25% London +2.0% 3rd quarter :- National +2.25% London +2.0% 4th quarter :- National +2.5% London +2.0%

Have you taken into account the SIPPS factor ? and also, is it only average prices you are looking at ? The figures above take into account both.

Regards,

Funky Me,

P.S. Saturdays lotto numbers too just in case you need them : 1,7,25,32,48,49 Bonus ball:3

Sorry Funky, better luck next time with the lotto numbers… LOL

Regards, Malik

www.housepricecrash.co.uk

The only thing that will make a house price crash is the Press and us if we panic. in a slow market you need to hold firm not sell, the market always picks up .just like it did last time.the market crashed, and it only crashed becouse every one went into a panic and sold a t a loss, the brave ones held and made a profit.

funky- yes am only looking at national average price (although there is betting market for london on betfair, i'm focusing on the national ones first).

edward- thanks for website link. some good info on that page.

I think its different this time. Hang on forgot the £1.2 trillion of debt. It is definately different this time.

http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk http://www.firsthomebuyer.co.uk/th-master.php?file=statistics.xml http://www.housepricecycle.com

well Edward you can be a sheep and follow the rest OR you can be the sheep dog and run the sheep to market, as i said the brave will be brave and the weak will be weak.i have always been brave and never lost from property, but you must do your homework before you buy in todays market,

David Sold all all buy to lets. There are too many muppets on the BTL bandwagon this has an effect of pushing down yields. However I have invested money in debt management companies -need more bad news about the UK populations debt problems 1.2 trillion at the last count. One persons loss is another persons gain.

Yes i agree , but i am picking up some great deals from repose etc . and then selling them on at a profit. you dont need to be in the BTL market ,to make money from property,

agree with dave on this. i perhaps like you (edward) had traditional btls until recently.

now i am more total return focused. more refurbs etc for a quick turn. thats not to say i will not contine to hold a few btls it is just not my main current focus.

a balanced residnetial property portfolio needs exposure to both btl and bts in my view.

tom

Borrowers who play with fire James Coney, Money Mail 13 October 2005 THOUSANDS of homeowners who took out interest-only mortgages are ignoring warnings and still have no idea how they will pay for their home. Research from Abbey reveals that more than a quarter of mortgages are still interest-only - where monthly repayments cover only the interest paid to the lender and nothing goes towards repaying the capital. And one in three of these homeowners is living on borrowed time - not knowing how they will pay off the capital sum when the mortgage ends. This is despite constant warnings from City watchdog the Financial Services Authority on the dangers of failing to save money to pay off the capital. The problem has been exacerbated by people cashing in endowments but not making alternative repayment arrangements. Interest-only mortgages can work in some circumstances - for example if you have the kind of job where you get regular large bonuses that you can use to reduce the amount of capital you originally borrowed. Many first-time buyers are encouraged to take out interest-only mortgages for a short time because it is the only way on to the housing ladder. This is because monthly repayments with interest-only mortgages are much lower than with repayment. A £100,000 mortgage repaid over 25 years on Abbey's two-year fixed rate of 4.29% would cost £545 each month on a repayment mortgage but only £355 on interest-only. About one in five of the homeowners who took out interest-only mortgages told Abbey they did so because they would not have been able to afford a house any other way. If you are disciplined and plan to change to a repayment mortgage after two years, this need not be a problem. But, worryingly, just 5% of homeowners with interestonly said it was a short-term solution. Around 55% of homeowners are still relying on an endowment to pay off the capital on their home. But one in three admitted that their savings would not be enough to pay off their mortgage. One in ten was hoping that the value of their property would rise and cover the £100,000 you will still owe £100,000 if you haven't sold your house. This is a very dangerous gamble, since your property might not increase as much as you hoped, leaving you thousands of pounds short of paying off the mortgage. Rob Clifford from national mortgage brokers Mortgageforce, says: 'Interest-only mortgages are a real help in bridging the affordability gap and getting people on to the ownership ladder. 'But it can also be a foolish course of action if no clear plan exists to repay the capital during the term. 'You need to start saving as early as possible or switch to a repayment mortgage within two years. 'Do not rely on house price inflation and do not rely on an inheritance. You need to start repaying it yourself.' • WHEN John Fields (pictured with wife Camilla and daughter Emily, five) moved back to England from Germany recently, he took out an interest-only mortgage to buy a £275,000 four-bedroom house in Milton Keynes. Mr Fields, 49, a banker, decided that because he was borrowing a large proportion of the value of the house, taking out a repayment mortgage would be restrictive. He had decided to keep two properties in Germany, for which he was paying around £1,500 a month. Mr Fields is also contributing to his work pension, has a private personal pension and stocks and shares. He plans to sell the properties in Germany to pay for the capital in his current home. 'We have made enough contingencies to make sure we can pay off the mortgage and are well catered for when we retire,' says Mr Fields.

Edward - what do you think will happen to rents over the coming months then?

I respect your opinion, but to some extent as long as I'm not a distressed seller, what do I care if short / medium term prices fall. My income from the tenants is still covering the mortgage and some. The intrinsic value of the properties as income-generating assets can't fall that much imo (hyper inflation excepting).

John

Well said John. rents in my area are up from this time last year. house prices also starting to go up again after a short time of holding , ( not falling ) you can still make money from property even in a slow market you just need to be careful what you buy.

agree with dave an john. imo the only real danger is interest rates jumping to 8%. that will kill the debt-driven property investor market as well as the owner-occupier market due to the large number of people that are on variable mortgages.

overall my believe is that this is highly unlikely. never say never but the probability is remote.

tom

just had a look at this

http://www.landlordtrader.co.uk/Betfair.html

very useful. might have a go!

tom

IG Index also do house price markets, but to be honest, in an illiquid market, there's often some money to be made because they don't keep their eye on the ball.

In this case, Betfair could be a good bet (no pun intended).

It's good to see that nobody at Betfair is making the market over there, at least you know there are real punters on the end of the bet (and if they ARE making the market then they aren't very good at it). Although to be honest, not that it matters if you can lock in profit!

JB